Feasibility of Post-Quantum Cryptography Adoption

The transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) is an urgent priority as quantum computing advances to break vast public-key infrastructure. This paper evaluates necessity, feasibility, economic implications, and organizational readiness required for the transition to PQC. I integrate a technical analysis to depict how Shor's Algorithm harnesses qubits to factor large numbers and break RSA encryption.

An econometric regression with a Newey-West estimation proves the correlation of economic forces that shape cybersecurity R&D and quantum computing advancement, implying a necessity for long-term PQC adoption plans. Using a DoD proportion-based model and a bottom-up cost estimation guideline, I estimate PQC adoption to cost Google $1.17 billion to $3.85 billion, with an emphasis situated in labor costs. Applying PQC adoption to Rogers' innovation diffusion work results in a paradox-early adoption has high upfront costs and extensive labor requirements while later adoption is more cost-effective, but faces substantial risks due to Harvest Now, Decrypt Later.

This framework provides organizations and policy-makers with actionable insights for planning a transition to PQC and gives researchers a strong basis for further work to firmly strengthen and protect the cybersecurity world against quantum threats.