Where Does Ethereum Validators' Money Go? A Spectral Analysis

Existing decentralization measures are almost entirely origination-side, quantifying concentration in who mines or validates blocks. We introduce a spectral methodology measuring concentration on the destination side instead: where value ultimately flows once it leaves a validator wallet. Modeling wallet-to-wallet transfers as a Markov chain, we compute near-real-time steady-state probabilities via the Perron-Frobenius theorem to identify long-run terminal recipients.

Applied to 76,855 Ethereum wallets from four years of mining data, fund flows collapse to just four terminal accounts. None of these fund destination accounts are among the network's three dominant identifiable revenue-earning miners.